Q4 and carry over packaging data published

01 MARCH 2017

Following hot on the heals of the 10th February publication of the final monthly data for 2016, the EA has now published the first cut of the Q4 data which shows the amount of PRNs carried forward into 2017. This will still need full verification as a number of reprocessors and exporters have yet to submit their Q4 return, but this should just be a confirmation of what is already on NPWD, so should not see much change.

The figures are very much in line with what we reported on the 10th, but the carry over shows some interesting positions.

  • Plastic is significantly higher than the 2015 carry over. If we assume that the plastic obligation will only increase by the target rise this year, then it would suggest that we need no plastic recycling growth to meet the 2017 target.
  • The steel carry over is also strong and on the back of a good Q4 result, it would suggest that the 2017 target should be easily met.
  • Glass, on the other hand, is relatively low with a 25% reduction on the 2015 carry forward. There appears to be no market concern on this as 2016 recycling was still well ahead of the likely 2017 obligation given that the glass target this year is unchanged form last year.
  • The aluminium carry over was nearly three times the 2015 carry over and with a strong quarerly performance, would suggest that 2017 targets should be easily met.

Overall, the recycling levels for 2016 saw a big jump on 2015 as can be seen in the graph below. But once again, this shows the increasing dependence on exports which now account for nearly 54% of the total recycling.